![]() Under current law, CBO estimates that the number of Medicaid enrollees who are eligible because of the ACA totaled 12 million in 2017 and will grow to 17 million in 2027, driven largely by additional states deciding to take up expansion. The coverage losses associated with curtailing federal funding to Medicaid expansion states will likely be significant. As a result, by the end of ten-year scoring window, this provision to reduce the Medicaid match rate would differ little from simply eliminating the enhanced match rate entirely.Īs a result, by the end of ten-year scoring window, this provision to reduce the Medicaid match rate would differ little from simply eliminating the enhanced match rate entirely. However, due to income fluctuations and other factors, relatively few people remain continuously enrolled in Medicaid for years at a time. The legislation would allow states to continue receiving the enhanced match rate for individuals who are currently eligible until those individuals leave the program. The legislation’s provisions curtailing federal support for state Medicaid programs would add substantially to these coverage losses-likely several million more.įirst, the legislation would reduce the share of Medicaid costs that the federal government pays for low-income adults in the ACA’s expansion population, from 90 percent under current law to each state’s regular Medicaid match rate the regular matching rate varies across states but averages 57 percent. Effects of Ending Enhanced Match for Medicaid Expansion and Imposing a Medicaid Per Capita Cap On top of that, CBO estimated that repealing the individual mandate would reduce the number of people with employer coverage by 2 million and reduce Medicaid coverage by 7 million, bringing the total coverage loss to 15 million. In total, CBO estimated that individual market premiums would rise by 20 percent and that 6 million people would lose individual market coverage by 2026. That, in turn, would drive premium increases in the individual health insurance market, causing still further coverage losses. ![]() CBO estimated that repealing the mandate would cause many people, especially healthy people, to drop their insurance coverage. Ī Starting Point: CBO’s Prior Estimate of Repealing the Individual MandateĪs a starting point, CBO recently estimated the effect of one important provision of the House legislation: repealing the individual mandate. Estimates could be higher, but it’s is unlikely they will be significantly lower. ![]() Nonetheless, we conclude that CBO’s analysis will likely estimate that at least 15 million people will lose coverage under the American Health Care Act (AHCA) by the end of the ten-year scoring window. There is significant uncertainty about exactly how CBO will model these provisions and how it will expect the various provisions to interact with one another.
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